The escalating phenomenon of climate change presents a substantial peril to our agricultural industry, specifically impacting crops and agricultural land that rely heavily on rivers for their natural resources.
The World Wide Fund commissioned a study with CoreCarbonX to evaluate any potential detrimental effects of climate change on agriculture in the Indian Sundarbans and the Arkavathy river basin. The purpose of this engagement was to evaluate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in projected future climate scenarios. The evaluation focused on the predicted 7.5%–28% drop in major crop yields due to climate change, including those of Ragi, Tomato, Beans, and Maize in the Arkavathy region, as well as Rice, Brinjal, Bhendi, Lathyrus, and Green gram in the Indian Sundarbans as a consequence of climate change.
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity
The CoreCarbonX team analyzed projected climatic productivity for chosen study crops using IPCC AR6 temperature and rainfall forecasts, area-specific soil data, and local farming practices. Future climatic scenarios consider insect infestation-related crop yield losses.
Dynamic crop simulation models assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) were also studied to understand future crop suitability classes. To establish future adaptability, a Multi-Criteria Decision approach included cultivation area, production, yield, economic advantages (including crop prices and workforce employment), and sensitivity to climate elements.
The team also used GIS-based analysis, the elevation of case sites, crop base temperature needs, and agricultural production history.
All these frameworks and concepts laid the groundwork for assessing climate change’s possible effects on agricultural production and developing sustainable policies.
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity
The findings derived from the Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agricultural Productivity in the Indian Sundarbans and Arkavathy River Basin underscore the necessity of implementing suitable adaptation strategies in the designated regions. These strategies should be based on projected crop productivity in order to sustain economically viable yields in the face of future climate scenarios.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) were suggested as an effective way to mitigate the challenge.
NbS provide cost-effective, long-term ways to conserve natural resources, ensure food security, manage sustainable land and water resources, fight climate change, increase water availability and quality, restore ecosystems and soils, and provide considerable health and food security benefits.
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